Analysis · Method · Data
How data is turned into probabilities — and where those probabilities stop. No promise of winnings, no miracle tips: the method, and its limits.
Method
The complete method for turning team statistics into a verifiable percentage: attacking and defensive strength, the Poisson distribution, comparison with the odds — and the margin of error nobody shows you.
10 min read Read the article
Analysis
How an xG figure is built, the cumulative xG trap, how many matches you need before trusting it, and why two websites give two different values.
· 9 min read
Analysis
How models turn a match's data into probabilities, without ever guaranteeing a result.
· 5 min read
Method
Implied probability, bookmaker margin, estimated edge, and the limits of a decision based on value.
· 6 min read
Guide
Bankroll, stakes, variance and discipline: the essential basics before you even assess a market.
· 5 min read
Guide
The concrete criteria to check before using a platform, without any misleading promotional ranking.
· 4 min read
Football
Useful reference points for following the tournament and analysing matches in their real context.
· 5 min read
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Four reads in order, from the basics to the full calculation of a probability. Each step builds on the one before.
The method in practice
Every morning, IASHARK calculates match probabilities from real data and explains the reasoning behind each signal. Today's analysis is always free.