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IASHARKFootball, in probabilities

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51 COMPETITIONS COVERED

Today's combosSmall combo, Big combo, Gold selection, scorer
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Free: the analysis of the match of the day, with an account.

An analysis, not a tip thrown at you with no explanation.

  • The signal

    The most likely bet among markets priced between 1.40 and 2.20, with its chance and where it comes from.

  • The reasoning

    The data and factors that led the model there, written in plain words.

  • The uncertainty

    Every analysis shows how reliable its data is. A thin sample is stated, not hidden.

51Competitions covered
—Matches analysed over 3 days

We'd rather tell you when we don't know.

A probability is only worth its reliability: we show both, even when they are modest.

  • No promise of profit

    A bet stays a bet. We compute probabilities; we guarantee no outcome.

  • Where the chance comes from is written

    When it comes from the market odds, we say so. When it comes from the model, the gap with the odds, margin removed, is shown even when it hurts you.

  • Nothing changes after kick-off

    Recalculated every day until the match starts, the analysis is no longer changed after kick-off.

  • Reliability on display

    Every analysis shows how reliable its data is: a thin sample is flagged as such.

Four steps, one signal per match.

Each step answers a different question. A single market comes out, chosen by a fixed rule.

  • Team strengths

    What each team produces and concedes, at home or away.

  • Caution early in the season

    With few matches played, the previous season weighs more.

  • Probability of every market

    From expected goals to the probability of every scoreline, then of every market.

  • The most likely scorelines

    The chance of every scoreline, ranked to bring out the most likely ones.

IASHARK signal

One priority market and its chance, taken from the market odds or from the model.

From raw data to a usable signal.

  1. 01

    We ingest the data

    Fixtures, standings, recent results, head-to-head history and announced absences, league by league.

  2. 02

    The model computes

    Expected goals and the probability of every scoreline, then of every market. The chance comes from the market odds, margin removed, or from the more cautious of the model and those odds.

  3. 03

    You get the signal

    One clear sheet: the pick, its chance, where it comes from and its reliability.

What you're wondering before you pay.

Can I try before paying?

Yes. One full analysis is free every day with a free account, no card required: the same content a subscriber gets. It is picked among the day's most favourable gaps; not every other analysis is as favourable.

Does IASHARK guarantee winnings?

No, and nobody can. The model estimates probabilities, then compares them with the odds. It is a method, not a guarantee.

How is the signal computed?

The system estimates each team’s expected goals, then the probability of every scoreline and every market. The chance comes from the market odds, margin removed, or from the more cautious of the model and those odds; the pick is the highest chance within the 1.40-2.20 odds range.

What happens when the data isn't enough?

No signal is published for that match. It is stated explicitly rather than replaced by a filler bet.

Which competitions are covered?

51 competitions, including Ligue 1, the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga, the European cups, second divisions, domestic cups, MLS, Liga MX, the top leagues of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Japan, and national-team competitions.

Can I cancel any time?

Yes, online from your account, at any time. No commitment, no notice, no reason needed.

How often are the analyses updated?

Every day, until the match starts. After kick-off, the analysis is no longer changed.

The next match already has a signal.

Go check it out, it's free.

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HOW IT WORKS

Football predictions built on probabilities, not hunches

IASHARK produces football predictions from a statistical score model and the market odds. For the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga, Ligue 1, the Champions League and the other competitions we cover, the model estimates the probability of each result, the number of goals and both teams to score. The chance comes from the market odds, margin removed, or from the more cautious of the model and those odds; the pick is the highest chance within the 1.40-2.20 odds range.

These are statistical estimates: football is uncertain, no outcome is guaranteed and IASHARK is not a bookmaker. Data coverage varies by league, so every analysis shows its data-quality rating. 18+ only.

Predictions by league

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