VISIT THE SITE →
🦈
STATISTICAL MODEL · FOOTBALL

No emotion.
Only probabilities.

IASHARK combines xG, recent form, schedule fatigue and head-to-head to produce a probability signal on every match, before kickoff.

SEE TODAY'S FREE MATCH
No credit card · 1 free analysis every day
POISSON MODELDIXON-COLES LOW-SCORE ADJUSTMENTMONTE CARLO SIMULATIONDYNAMIC ELO RANKINGSHIN PROBABILITIESFRACTIONAL KELLY POISSON MODELDIXON-COLES LOW-SCORE ADJUSTMENTMONTE CARLO SIMULATIONDYNAMIC ELO RANKINGSHIN PROBABILITIESFRACTIONAL KELLY
THE METHOD

Four models, one signal per match.

MODEL 1
Poisson
Distribution of expected goals for each team, home and away.
MODEL 2
Dixon-Coles
Correction for low scores (0-0, 1-0, 1-1) that pure Poisson underestimates.
MODEL 3
Monte Carlo
Thousands of match simulations to get a robust distribution of outcomes.
MODEL 4
Elo & Shin
Real team strength over time, and correction of the implied-probability bias.

Nothing to hide. Everything is tracked.

Every published analysis stays visible in our history: recommended market, announced probability, real result. You check, we never rewrite anything after the fact.

SEE THE FULL HISTORY →
IN PRACTICE

From raw data to a usable signal.

01
We ingest the data
Schedules, probable lineups, head-to-head history and xG stats fed in continuously, league by league.
02
The model computes
Poisson, Dixon-Coles and Monte Carlo run in parallel to produce a probability distribution for each market.
03
You get the signal
A clear sheet per match: probability, reliability level, and the market where the model detects a gap with the real market.
ACCESS

Start for free. Upgrade to Pro when you want to see everything.

FREE
€0
  • 1 full analysis offered every day
  • Access to performance history
  • Our method explained in detail
GET STARTED
PRO
Freefor the first 3 days
Then €19.95/month — cancel anytime
  • All analyses, all leagues
  • Advanced filters and detailed reliability level
  • Personal tracking of your followed matches
  • Cancel anytime
UNLOCK PRO
🦈

The next match already has a signal.

Go check it out, it's free.

SEE TODAY'S MATCH